While it’s important not to take the polls seriously right now, the latest New York Times poll shows growing momentum in favor of President Biden.
The New York Times reported:
Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are now virtually tied, with Mr. Trump holding a 46 to 45 percent advantage. This is an improvement for Mr. Biden from late February, when Mr. Trump had a more solid 48% to 43% lead just before becoming the presumptive Republican nominee.
Mr. Biden’s rise appears to come largely from his better standing among traditional Democratic voters — he is gaining a larger share of voters who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago. At the time, Mr. Trump had the support of far more of his former voters than the president — 97% to 83% — but that margin has narrowed. Mr. Biden now wins 89% of his supporters in 2020, compared to 94% for Mr. Trump.
For months, the Biden campaign has been grappling with a strange problem. Biden’s internal polling showed many voters did not believe Republicans would nominate Trump for a third time. Democratic and Republican politicians have for months expressed the belief that once Trump clinches his party’s presidential nomination, reality will set in for voters and his poll numbers will plummet.
To receive more stories like this, subscribe to our The Daily newsletter.
Trump’s lead in the polls has been dismissed as a mirage based on an electorate that doesn’t pay attention. It’s only April and most of the electorate still isn’t paying attention, which is why polls shouldn’t be trusted.
Interestingly, the Times also admitted in its article something I pointed out previously, specific polls on individual groups of voters are not available at the moment, no one should therefore attach much importance to the fact that one candidate or another is leading among certain groups of voters.
What should not be ignored is the overall trend line. Biden now leads Trump in nine polls. Biden also leads Trump in the average of all polls.
Don’t think much about the hard numbers until after the fall election, but Trump isn’t leading in “every poll” as he likes to claim. The ex-president is losing. The Democrats are going home and they are with Joe Biden.
A special message from PoliticusUSA
If you are able to donate just to help us keep the doors of PoliticusUSA open during a critical election year, please do so here.
We’re honored to be able to put your interests first for 14 years because we only answer to our readers and we will not compromise on this core, core value of PoliticusUSA.
Jason is the editor-in-chief. He is also a member of the White House Press Panel and a Congressional Correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason holds a bachelor’s degree in political science. His graduate studies focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Pricing and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and the American Political Science Association