Iran is massive missile and drone attack against Israel, which began in the late hours of April 13, pushed the conflict between the two countries into a new, potentially explosive phase. For decades, Israel and Iran fought shadow war, they attack each other silently and, in the case of Iran, often by proxy. That changed with Iran’s response to an April 1 attack blamed on Israel, in which several Iranian officers were killed in Syria. Israel’s response to the missile and drone onslaught could determine whether the next step is all-out war.
Israeli forces have a vast technological advantage over those of Iran. This is due in part to military and financial support from the United States, which has long sought to secure Israel’s advantage as part of its commitment to the Jewish state’s security. For example, Israel is so far the only Middle Eastern state to have purchased Lockheed Martin Corp.’s F-35 fighter jet – the most expensive weapons system ever designed.
It is also widely believed that Israel possesses nuclear weapons, although it has never acknowledged this capability.
In contrast, sanctions and political isolation have hampered Iran’s access to foreign military technology, pushing it to develop its own weapons, including the missiles and drones it fired Saturday. Iran’s fighter jets are mostly older models inherited from before the 1979 revolution. It is agreed to purchase Russian planes, but it is not clear whether they have been delivered.
Although technologically disadvantaged, the Iranian military reportedly has a large stockpile of ballistic and cruise missiles and inexpensive unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, which it deployed against Israel on April 13.
As Iran has learned, penetrating Israel’s important air defenses is a challenge. We have to overtake the Israeli Air Force fighters. Then there are the Israeli Arrow and David’s Sling air defense systems, which along with the United States and other allied forces in the region intercepted the “vast majority” of the more than 200 drones and missiles fired by Iran, according to the Israeli military.
Tehran’s arsenal also includes surface-to-air missiles, including the Russian S-300 air defense system, but these are not as combat-proven as Israeli defenses. Iran accidentally shot down a Ukrainian airliner in 2020, amid heightened tensions with the United States, using a Russian-made Tor air defense missile.
Both Israel and Iran have cyberwarfare capabilities. More than a decade ago, malware known as Stuxnet compromised operations at an Iranian nuclear enrichment facility in what is suspected to have been a US and Israeli operation. Iran is capable of “conducting a full range of cyber operations, from information operations to destructive attacks against government and commercial networks around the world,” according to a US Defense Intelligence Agency assessment released April 11 . Cyberattacks launched by Iran include a hack aimed at paralyzing computers and water flow for two Israeli districts, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
Who are their allies?
Iran’s most important allies are the Shiite militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen which it supports with money, weapons and training. The Lebanese militia Hezbollah, which launched rockets at Israeli targets during the Iranian attack on Israel on April 13, would be able to play the most important role in an all-out war. It has fought repeated battles with Israel and regularly fired missiles, mortars and rockets into northern Israel since war broke out in October between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group. Palestinian group Hamas. Hezbollah’s arsenal contains more than 70,000 rockets and missiles, including long-range and precision-guided missiles, according to Israeli intelligence.
Yemen supported by Iran Houthi rebels would likely be keen to play a role in a larger war. Since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas, they have attempted to strike Israel with missiles and drones and disrupted traffic in the Red Zone. Sea repeatedly attacking the ships there.
Iran’s only ally in the Middle East is Syria. President Bashar al-Assad’s government is unlikely to be of much help given that it is still in struggle to take control across the country after the outbreak of civil war in 2011.
Iran maintains good relations with Russia, although its war in Ukraine would likely limit its aid capacity, as well as with China, which has purchased Iranian oil although it remains sanctioned by the United States and his allies.
Israel has the United States and the United Kingdom on its side. The United States has already shipped munitions to Israel to help it fight Hamas. Among U.S. forces in the Middle East are two Navy destroyers that moved to the Eastern Mediterranean in early April, according to a Navy official: the USS Carney and the USS Arleigh Burke, both capable of air defense.
At the start of the war between Israel and Hamas, the Pentagon moved its new aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, and its battle group to the Eastern Mediterranean. He has since returned home. The Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group is set to exit its operations against the Houthis. Each of them is equipped with F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter jets and other advanced aircraft. Additionally, 2,000 Marines were placed on heightened alert in case of potential mobilization.
The British Ministry of Defense deployed Royal Air Force jets to help intercept the Iranian attack on Israel.
How could Arab states respond?
A war between Israel and Iran would put many countries in the region in a difficult situation. Four Arab countries have peace agreements with Israel in 2020 via the so-called Abraham Accords. Their distrust of Iran was part of this brought them together. But it is unlikely that any Arab state would stand alongside Israel in a confrontation against another Muslim country, let alone one as powerful as Iran.
Iran and Saudi Arabia re-established diplomatic relations last year after a seven-year freeze. Saudi Arabia is exploring the possibility of normalizing relations with Israel as part of a broader deal in which it hopes to gain security guarantees from the United States, and it will likely try to avoid getting drawn into the dispute.