Shohei Ohtani just signed the biggest contract in baseball history. 10 years for $700 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Even though there were other teams in the running, no one was closer to landing Ohtani than the Toronto Blue Jays. Everyone was delirious. Learning that the Japanese superstar was in Florida at the Jays’ spring training facility, stalking a private jet flying from Santa Ana to Toronto, until breaking news that ultimately didn’t turn out to be true, it was so close but always so far for the Canadian club.
But what would have happened if Ohtani had gone there?
Contract logistics
First, let’s talk about whether they could have even signed him. They certainly had money in the budget, but it was initially estimated that whichever club landed, Ohtani would have to pay between $500 million and $600 million. The Blue Jays have a total active payroll of $128,964,255 for 2024 according to Spotrac. According to their calculations, their total should exceed 190 billion dollars. All to say, they could have afforded the $700 million the Dodgers got Ohtani for. They certainly could have signed him, but it seems like staying in California was a bigger draw.
What does Ohtani bring them?
Adding Ohtani to any lineup instantly improves it. Whether he’s hitting or pitching, he’s a dual threat and has proven that throughout his time with the Angels. While he may not pitch much, if at all, in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, he can play that designated hitter role and fit into a rotation with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the current DH of the Blue Jays. If he is able to pitch next season, he will not only strengthen their presence on the mound, but also help the catchers improve.
Last season, Ohtani had 151 hits in 497 at-bats and a .304 average. He hit 44 home runs, fourth best in the league. He also collected 95 RBIs. As for pitching, he pitched for 23 games and had 163 strikeouts and a 3.14 ERA. While these may not be his best pitching stats for a season, his batting average would put him as the fifth-best hitter last season based on the Blue Jays’ batting average and the ninth-best pitcher in MPM terms.
So not only does he bring that presence of someone who is so good at baseball it’s scary, but he brings relief to a Blue Jays team that was having trouble leaving players stranded on base. He could have taken a very competent team and exploited its full potential. Think about Michael Jordan when he joined the Bulls in 1995. They were good, but they could have been better. Once back, they went 13-4 and clinched a playoff spot. Incredibly talented players have the potential to bring that drive and competitiveness to any team they join.
What went wrong?
We won’t know all the details that led to Ohtani’s decision until he talks about it in the subsequent press conference that he alluded to in his Instagram post, but there are great possibilities. One being that staying in California keeps him geographically close to home. Japan is still almost a 12-hour flight from Los Angeles, but it’s much closer than Toronto would be. The other being that there is hope that his longevity will not be affected after his elbow surgery. Spending $700 million on anyone (or anything, honestly) is a huge risk. What if it doesn’t work out? What if he can’t throw like he used to? It’s a valid concern, and perhaps Toronto just didn’t want to leave any doubts on the table when they were considering drafting the contract. They wanted to be confident, but they weren’t sure they could be. This seems like the most logical reason. The money was there, the roster spot and the opportunities were there, but maybe the confidence just wasn’t there.
