The past year has of course been a pivotal one for artificial intelligence in healthcare, with healthcare provider organizations participating in significant new developments that promise to transform healthcare delivery in the years to come.
The coming year promises to introduce new technological and regulatory nuances as policymakers and healthcare organizations become more sophisticated in their understanding and use of AI, and as they become acclimated to the “new normal,” says Ronen Lavi, CEO and co-founder of Navina, a developer of AI technology that works with primary care data.
Healthcare IT News interviewed Lavi, who proposed three trends that healthcare leaders should be aware of by 2024: one on the “meaningful use” of AI, one on explainable AI, and another on greater adoption of advanced and technological payment models.
Q. You said that this year there would be first steps toward what you called “meaningful use” of AI. Please explain.
A. 2023 saw the emergence of AI into common workflows across industries with the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. With this, analysts have predicted paradigm shifts in the world of work, with a particular focus on middle-class “knowledge workers.” In medicine, we have seen countless releases of AI-powered capabilities, ranging from ambient dictation to task management and clinical decision support.
When electronic health records entered the scene, regulators responded with incentive programs to accelerate the transition from paper to digital records, with the goal of increasing interoperability, quality and safety of patient care. patients.
With every exam room now equipped with a computer or tablet containing a wealth of patient information across various platforms, clinicians are increasingly turning to AI-based systems to gain summaries and information.
Today, AI-based data synthesis and exploration has become increasingly accessible to clinicians. We anticipate that regulators will see this as an opportunity to encourage the use of these solutions that enable “a complete view of the patient” to increase safety and quality of care.
Q. There is certainly some distrust in the healthcare industry of so-called “black box” systems. You suggest that in 2024, responsible and explainable AI will be king. Please elaborate.
A. In 2023, clinical and healthcare IT leaders have witnessed an unprecedented number of creative examples of how to integrate AI into clinical and administrative workflows. However, a year later, these leaders have become more sophisticated and have developed a deeper understanding of what AI can – and cannot – do for their organization.
As software developers continue to push the boundaries of what AI can do, when it comes to healthcare, nothing can replace the clinician-patient experience. Despite exaggerated promises of systems that can overcome staffing issues, the reality is that in a clinical setting, AI will augment rather than replace human interaction in the exam room.
A year into the hype cycle, we are well aware of the dangers associated with AI “hallucinations” based on large language models. These risks are particularly important in a healthcare environment, and clinicians are looking for ways to “de-risk” their interaction with information from multiple sources and AI engines, both for the safety of patients and from a regulatory liability perspective.
As President Biden shines a spotlight on regulatory accountability for AI, we expect that the AI systems that emerge victorious in the contentious battle for clinician adoption will be those that explain knowledge based on AI and allow the final verdict to be that of the clinician.
Q. On another front, you predict that the inflationary environment will lead to greater acceleration and adoption in 2024 of advanced and technological payment models. How so?
A. Amid the technological and pharmaceutical advancements we saw in 2023, the third notable theme of the year was rapid inflation. The result is increased costs for labor, procedures and medications.
The year 2023 saw significant movement in the value-based care investing space, with Aledade securing significant funding and Walmart allegedly in talks to acquire ChenMed, as examples. We anticipate that current trends among providers and health plans toward value-based care will only increase in an environment where every stakeholder is feeling the pressure of rising costs.
Health plans will respond by investing more in programs designed to control the total cost of care. With many health plans already involved in providing care as “payers,” these organizations are well-positioned to continue moving away from fee-for-service.
We anticipate that hospitals and health systems facing workforce shortages and rising costs, historically lagging behind in value-based payment terms, will feel the pressure from health plans – as well as their own assessments – to consider accelerating the movement.
To successfully make this transition, healthcare leaders will seek advanced technologies to support clinical staff tasked with new workflows and documentation requirements.
The year 2023 saw a rapid acceleration of technologies ranging from software to pharmaceuticals. 2024 promises to be a year where we see new advances and new dilemmas that will arise from the maturity and widespread adoption of these early developments. With a foggy macroenvironmental future, we expect healthcare to double the total cost of care initiatives, with an emphasis on technology-enabled and value-based care strategies.
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