GOCMEN
Last week’s U.S. employment data showed the job market remains strong.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 199,000 in November, compared to consensus expectations of around 185,000 to 190,000. The increase from the previous two months was revised down by 35,000.
The private sector payroll increased by 150,000 people. Within sectors, jobs in education and health services saw the largest increase, up 99,000 in November. Of this group, 93,200 jobs are health and social assistance jobs.
The increase of 28,000 manufacturing jobs is due to the return of about 30,000 striking auto workers.
The data “failed to provide evidence of meaningful deterioration,” wrote Christopher Wood, head of equity strategy at Jefferies, but data on layoffs and temporary employment continue to show a slowdown in the market work.
The number of resignations in the United States fell from a peak of 4.5 million in November 2021 to 3.63 million in October.
Employment in the temporary help services sector also fell by 13,600 in November and is now down to 261,000, or 8.2% from 3.17 million in March 2022.
“Real labor market weakness will only occur if SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) begin to withdraw,” Wood wrote.
Additionally, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) November Small Business Survey, released Tuesday, shows that a net 18 percent of small business owners plan to create new jobs over the over the next three months, and that a net 30% of small businesses plan to create new jobs over the next three months. companies plan to increase salaries, up from 24% in October.
The average interest rate on small business loans increased to 9.3% in November from 9.1% the previous month, but rose to a high of 9.8% from September.
